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Case-Shiller Reports Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 7 Years

February 24, 2021 by Scott Fickenscher

Case-Shiller Reports Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 7 YearsS & P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported the fastest pace of U.S home price growth in seven years. National home prices grew by 10.40 percent year-over-year in December as compared to November’s reading of  9.50 percent home price growth on a year-over-year basis.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index reported home price growth in 18 of 20 cities included in the index. Detroit, Michigan did not report home price data for December. Phoenix, Arizona held the top position in the 20-City Index for the 19th consecutive month with year-over-year home price growth averaging 14.40 percent. Home prices in Seattle, Washington home prices held second place with year-over-year growth of 13.60 percent. San Diego, California home prices grew 13.00 percent year-over-year.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency released home price data for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose by 10.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 as compared to home prices in the fourth quarter of 2019. Home prices reported by FHFA rose by 3.80 percent between the third and fourth quarters of 2020.

Idaho home prices reported by FHFA rose by 21.10 percent year-over-year.  Montana home prices grew by 15.50 percent; Utah followed closely with 15.40 percent home price growth. FHFA reported the highest pace of home price growth for cities in Boise, Idaho; home prices in San Francisco, California grew at the slowest pace. This data supports the trend of homeowners moving from costly metro areas to inland suburbs where they can buy larger homes for lower prices.

Rapidly Rising Home Prices Impact Affordability

While homeowners welcome quickly rising home prices, affordability issues worry real estate analysts and prospective home buyers. The covid-19 pandemic caused home prices to rise as homeowners fled congested urban areas for suburban and rural areas.

Supplies of available homes fall as demand for homes keeps rising during the pandemic. Millennials are in their peak home-buying years but many current homeowners are waiting out the pandemic to sell. Low inventories of available homes and rising building materials costs add to the shortage of homes in general and affordable homes in particular.

First-time and moderate-income home buyers face increasing challenges as home prices and mortgage rates rise. Mortgage approval standards are difficult to meet as rising home prices cause housing payments and down payment requirements to increase. In addition to property taxes and hazard insurance, buyers who cannot pay 20 percent down must also pay for mortgage insurance.

Skyrocketing home prices should ease when demand for homes slows, but that won’t happen until supplies of available homes catch up to buyer demand.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Case-Shiller, FHFA, Home Prices

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 22, 2021

February 22, 2021 by Scott Fickenscher

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 22, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued along with data on sales of previously-owned homes. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Home Builders Index Rises One Point in February

Homebuilder confidence rose by one index point to 84 according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. Readings over 50 in the Housing Market Index indicate that most homebuilders are confident about U.S. housing market conditions.

Component readings for the housing market index were mixed in February. Builder confidence in current market conditions for new single-family homes was unchanged with an index reading of 90; builder confidence in new home sales for the next six months fell by three points to a reading of 83. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family developments rose four points to an index reading of 72.  Before the pandemic, readings for buyer traffic in new housing developments were typically below 50, but the pandemic has created more interest in new single-family homes as families moved from congested urban areas to suburban areas.

Builders cited ongoing concerns including rising materials costs and affordability issues for first-time and low-income homebuyers.

Housing Starts Lower in January as Building Permits Rise

The Commerce Department reported fewer housing starts in January based on 1.58 million starts reported on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, 1.67 million starts were reported in December and analysts expected a pace of 1.68 million housing starts for January.

Building permits issued rose in January to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.88 million permits. Analysts expected a reading of 1.67 million permits issued based on 1.70 million permits issued in December. Winter weather conditions likely contributed to fewer housing starts, but builders took out more building permits in anticipation of improving weather and continuing demand for homes due to shortages of available homes for sale and higher demand due to the covid-19 pandemic.

The National Association of Realtors® reported 6.69 million sales of previously-owned homes on a seasonally adjusted annual basis as of January. Low inventories of available homes and high demand for single-family homes continue to drive home sales during the pandemic. Rising home prices caused by high demand and low inventories of homes for sale created affordability issues in suburban areas as well as traditionally high-priced metro areas.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by eight basis points to 2.81 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.21 percent and were two basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.77 percent and two basis points lower than the prior week.

Weekly jobless claims data was mixed last week with 861,000 initial jobless claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 848,000 first-time jobless claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims fell to 4.49 million continuing claims as compared to the prior week’s reading of 4.56 million continuing jobless claims filed.

What’s Next

This week’s scheduled economic readings include S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, and data on pending home sales. The University of Michigan will issue its reading on consumer sentiment and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: COVID19, Financial Report, Mortgage Rate Rise

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 15, 2021

February 16, 2021 by Scott Fickenscher

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 15, 2021

Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on U.S. labor markets, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Oil Prices Push Inflation Higher in January

Rising oil and gasoline prices drove a jump in January’s consumer price index. Inflation rose 0.30 percent month-to-month, which matched analysts’ expectations. The year-over-year inflation rate rose to 1.40 percent but remained lower than the pre-pandemic annual pace of 2.30 percent. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, was unchanged in January.

Some analysts expect stronger inflation throughout 2021 due to the impact of stimulus payments and the potential for covid-19 vaccines. Widespread vaccinations are expected to reduce quarantine requirements and local restrictions on businesses and workplaces.

Fed Chair Doesn’t Expect Lasting Jump in Inflation in Near Term

In remarks made during a speech to the Economic Club of New York, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he anticipated neither “a large nor sustained” increase in inflation for the near future. Mr. Powell also said that rising prices caused by bursts of spending were not sustainable. “Inflation has been much lower and more stable over the past three decades than in earlier times.” The Fed Chair also observed that “In the 1970s  when inflation would go up, it would stay up.”

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Jobless Claims Decrease

Freddie Mac reported no change in the average rate of 2.73 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by two basis points to 2.19 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages rose one basis point to 2.79 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and fell to 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Jobless claims fell last week with 793,000 initial claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 812,000 first-time claims filed. 4.55 million continuing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to 4.69 million ongoing claims filed in the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The National Association of Realtors will report on sales of previously-owned homes. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Financial Report, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 8, 2021

February 8, 2021 by Scott Fickenscher

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 8, 2021Last week’s economic news included Commerce Department readings on construction spending, labor sector reporting on public and private-sector job growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Driven by Housing Sector in December

The Commerce Department reported a one percent gain in construction spending in December to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of $1.49 trillion. Residential construction drove spending for the seventh consecutive month with a 3.10 percent gain in spending. Construction for public projects rose by 0.50 percent; private-sector spending on non-residential construction fell by -1.70 percent.

Demand for housing remained high as supplies of previously-owned homes ran below average and homebuyers turned to new housing developments. Flight to less congested metro areas continued to drive demand for single-family homes. Builders cited rising materials costs and land and labor shortages as ongoing challenges to building affordable homes.

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Job Growth Improves

Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week. The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.73 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.21 percent and one basis point higher. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was two basis points lower at 2.78 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

Public and private-sector job growth improved in January. ADP reported 174,000 private-sector jobs as compared to a negative reading of -78,000 jobs in December. Analysts forecasted 48,000 private-sector jobs added in January.

The federal government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 49,000 public and private-sector jobs added, which fell short of the expected 50,000 jobs added, but the job growth reading was good news when compared to December’s reading of -227,000 jobs lost.  In related news, the national unemployment rate fell to 6.30 percent as compared to December’s reading of 6.70 percent 

Fewer Jobless Claims Filed

779,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 812,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell with 4.59 million ongoing claims reported; 4.79 million continuing claims were filed during the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Financial Report, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 1, 2021

February 1, 2021 by Scott Fickenscher

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 1, 2021

Last week’s economic reports included readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, readings on new and pending home sales,  and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Prices Rose Faster in November

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index showed that November home prices grew by 9.50 percent on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. October’s reading showed 8.40 percent home price growth; analysts expected a year-over-year pace of  8.80 percent for national home price growth.

Severe shortages of available homes coupled with high demand for homes continued to fuel rising home prices as builders faced rising materials costs. The covid pandemic added to home price growth, which is expected to slow as businesses and employers reopen and flight from congested urban areas slows.

The 20-City Home Price Index reported home price growth in 19 of 20 cities; Detroit, Michigan has not reported its data in recent months. Phoenix, Arizona, Seattle, Washington, and San Diego, California again held the top three places in the 20-City Index.

New Home Sales Rise in December

New homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 842,000 sales as compared to a sales pace of 829,000 homes sold in November. Pending home sales were lower in December with a -0.30 percent decline. Analysts forecasted a reading of -0.20 percent in pending sales based on November’s reading of -2.60 percent fewer pending home sales. Seasonal influences including winter weather and the holiday season typically cause home sales to fall during the winter months.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower fixed mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.73 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell one basis point to 2.20 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.80 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent, 0.60 percent, and 0.30 percent respectively.

First-time jobless claims fell to 847,000 claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 914,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were also lower with 4.77 million claims filed. as compared to the previous week’s reading of 4.97 million claims filed.

The University of Michigan reported an index reading of 79.0 in January for its Consumer Sentiment Index. Analysts expected no change to December’s reading of 79.2. The continued spread of covid-19 and related economic concerns contributed to lower consumer sentiment.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic readings include labor-sector reports on public and private obs growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Financial Report, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Continue Rising in November

January 29, 2021 by Scott Fickenscher

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Continue Rising in November

Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported a year-over-year national home price gain of 9.50 percent for November 2020. Home prices continued to grow in response to high demand for homes and homeowner relocations in response to the covid-19 pandemic. Inventories of pre-owned homes remained low. Home prices rose at a slower pace in November but remained strong in most areas.

20-City Home Price Index Reports Home Price Gains in 19 of 20 Cities

November’s edition of the 20-City Home Price Index reported the highest year-over-year home price gain of 13.80 percent in Phoenix, Arizona, which held first place for the 18th consecutive month. Seattle, Washington reported year-over-year home price growth of 12.70 percent, and San Diego, California held third place with year-over-year home price growth of 12.30 percent. Home prices rose 1.50 percent from October to November.

Lower numbers of mortgage applications indicated that demand for homes may be slowing, but analysts expected demand for homes to continue driving home prices up. Factors contributing to slowing home sales include affordability and less inclination to relocate as businesses and employers reopen. Low inventories of available pre-owned homes limited prospective buyers’ choice of homes; home builders faced rising materials and labor costs that impact their ability to produce affordable homes.

FHFA Reports Home Price Growth Exceed Post-Recession Pace

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that prices of single-family homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac grew by one percent between October and November; home prices were up by 11 percent year-over-year. November was the sixth consecutive month for home price growth reported by FHFA. Data supplied by FHFA is based on house purchases and does not include refinancing transactions. 

Dr. Lynn Fisher, Deputy Director of FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics, said “House prices have risen by at least one percent for six consecutive months. The acceleration has been slowing, but annual gains now outpace the prior housing boom. Current conditions can be explained by fundamentals including low rates and tight housing supply, which have been  intensified by the pandemic.”

Year-over-year home price growth within the nine federal census divisions ranged from 0.30 percent in the West South Central Division to 14.00 percent growth in the Mountain Division. Home price growth in the mountain west continued to grow as homeowners in costly and congested coastal areas moved to more affordable neighborhoods in cities including Phoenix, Arizona,  and Boise, Idaho.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Case-Shiller, Corona virus, Home Supply

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