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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 26, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 26, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, data on sales of new and previously-owned homes, and weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

NAHB: Affordability, Shortages of Labor and Materials Impacting U.S. Housing Markets

Housing market conditions are changing according to July’s Housing Market Index produced by the National Association of Home Builders. Although the HMI reading declined by one point in July, ongoing trends including labor shortages, higher prices for building materials, and affordability impacted builder confidence in overall market conditions. July’s index reading was 80 as compared to June’s reading of 81 and the expected reading of 82. Housing Market Index readings over 50 indicate that most builders surveyed were confident about housing market conditions.

Component readings of July’s Housing Market Index included builder confidence in current market conditions, which fell one point to 86;  builder confidence in housing market conditions for the next six months rose two points to 81. Builder confidence in prospective buyer traffic in single-family housing developments fell six points to an index reading of 65. Buyer traffic readings often fell below 50 before the pandemic.

Regional builder confidence readings for housing market conditions were mixed in July. The Northeastern region’s reading was four points lower at an index reading of 75. The Midwest index reading was one point lower at 71. The builder confidence reading in the South was unchanged at 85 and the West’s builder confidence reading dropped two points to 87.

Previously-Owned Home Sales Rise in June

The National Association of Realtors® reported a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 5.86 million sales of previously-owned homes in June. Analysts expected a reading of 5.93 million sales; May’s reading for existing home sales showed an annual pace of  5.78 million homes sold.

Demand for homes since the pandemic started is driven by home buyer demand for homes in less congested suburban and rural areas. Although demand for homes encourages home builders, it also increases home prices when multiple buyers submit purchase offers on each available home. This drives home prices higher and sidelines first-time and moderate-income buyers. High-demand areas are also experiencing more cash offers, which creates difficulties for buyers needing to finance a home purchase.

Housing Starts Rise in July as Building Permits Issued Fall

U.S. housing starts rose in June according to the Census Bureau. 1.64 million starts were reported on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. 1.59 million starts were expected based on 1.55 million starts reported in May. Building permits fell to 1.60 permits issued in June; analysts expected building permits issued in June to match May’s reading of 1.68 million building permits issued.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported lower rates for fixed-rate mortgages with 30-year fixed rates averaging 10 basis points lower at 2.78 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were also 10 basis points lower and averaged 2.12 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable mortgages rose two basis points on average to 2.49 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

419,000 new jobless claims were filed last week as compared to 368, 000 initial jobless claims filed in the previous week. 3.24 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to 3.27 million ongoing jobless claims filed in the previous week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on home prices from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, data on pending home sales and new home sales will be released along with the post-meeting statement of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a press conference after the FOMC statement is released. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will be published along with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 12, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 12, 2021Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, news on changing FHA home loan requirements for borrowers with student loans, and reporting on job openings. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

FOMC Minutes Show Fed’s Reluctance to Raise Target Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve released minutes of its meeting held via teleconferencing on June 15 and 16. The Committee resumed its consideration of creating “domestic and foreign repurchase agencies that would have a backdrop role in fostering implementation and support of monetary policy and smooth functioning of markets,” but no decisions were made.

 FOMC members did not change the current federal funds rate range of  0.00 to 0.25 percent and did not anticipate changing the Fed’s key interest rate range until the end of 2023. Lower jobs growth and higher inflation than expected in the near term influenced the current decision to hold on raising the Fed’s key rate, but the Committee predicted that near-term inflation will subside in the medium term.

FHA Changes Home Loan Policy on Borrowers with Student Loans

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced changes to its home loan lending requirements for borrowers with student loans; the changes become effective by August 16 or sooner if lenders prefer. The changes in calculations used for determining debt-to-income ratios for borrowers with student loans will help more borrowers fall within the maximum debt-to-income ratio of 43 percent currently permitted by FHA regulations.

Mortgage Rates Fall; Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported record low mortgage rates last week as demand for homes continued to outstrip supplies of available homes. Steep increases in home prices continued to create affordability issues for first-time and moderate-income homebuyers.

The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by eight basis points to 2.90 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.20 percent and were six basis points lower. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.52 percent and were two basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate loans and 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate loans. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent.

Initial jobless claims rose to 373,000 first-time claims filed as compared to 371,000 initial claims filed in the previous week. Continuing jobless claims fell to 3.34 million ongoing claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 3.48 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

Job openings held steady at 9.20 million job openings; employers continued searching for workers for open positions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment.  Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 5, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 5, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and data on pending home sales. Readings on job growth and und unemployment were also released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

S&P Case-Shiller: April Home Price Gains Reach Record Highs

Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of investment strategy for S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that April’s year-over-year national home price growth rate of 14.60 percent was “ truly extraordinary.” All cities included in the 20-City Home Price Index posted higher home prices;  five cities including Charlotte, North Carolina, Cleveland, Ohio, and Dallas, Texas posted their highest home price gains ever along with Denver, Colorado, and Seattle, Washington.  

Phoenix, Arizona, San Diego, California, and Seattle, Washington continued to hold the top three positions for annual home price growth in the 20-City Home Price Index.

Realtors Report Increase in Pending Home Sales

Pending home sales rose by eight percent in May as compared to April. Analysts expected a one percent decrease in pending sales. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, said “May’s strong increase in transactions, as well as a sudden erosion in home affordability, was indeed a surprise. The housing market is attracting buyers b due to the decline in mortgage rates and an uptick in listings.”

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Show Mixed Results

Freddie Mac reported lower average rates for fixed-rate mortgages. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.98 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by eight basis points to 2.26 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.54 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-yar fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged0.30 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 364,000 initial claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 415,000 new claims filed. Continuing jobless claims increased with 3.47 million ongoing claims filed. ADP reported 692,000 private-sector jobs added in June; The federal Non-Farm payrolls report posted 850,000 public and private-sector jobs added as compared to 583,000 jobs added in May. The national unemployment rate ticked up to 5.90 percent in June from May’s reading of 5.80 percent unemployed.  

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee and the Labor Department’s report on job openings. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 28, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 28, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes.  Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

New Home Sales Fall in May

New home sales dropped to their lowest reading in a year in May with 769,000 new single-family homes sold on a  seasonally adjusted annual basis.  May’s reading was 5.90 percent lower than April’s reading of 817,000 sales but was 9.20 percent higher year-over-year.

May’s decline in new home sales was caused by a 14.50 percent decrease in sales in the South; Sales rose by 33 percent in the Northeast and 4.80 percent in the West. The sales pace for new homes in the Midwest was unchanged.

Multiple factors caused fewer new home sales during what is typically a busy home-buying season. Rising costs of lumber, along with high demand for homes and affordability challenges presented obstacles to first-time and moderate-income buyers in recent months, but lumber prices fell in May. High demand for homes created opportunities for cash buyers who sidestepped making purchase offers contingent on mortgage approvals.

Analysts said that falling lumber prices will eventually provide relief for homebuyers, but short inventories of available homes coupled with high home prices continued to sideline first-time and moderate-income buyers. The median price for new homes rose to $374,000 as compared to $369,000 in April. Real estate pros reported a 5.1 month supply of available homes in May, which was the highest reading in a year.

Existing Home Sales Lower in May as Market Slows

Sales of previously-owned homes also fell in May; this was likely due to low inventories of available homes and the covid induced home-buying frenzy easing. Would-be home buyers have also left the market due to affordability challenges.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors® said: “Home sales fell moderately in May and are now approaching pre-pandemic activity.” Mr. Yun identified low inventories of available homes and affordability as the main obstacles facing prospective home buyers.

Mortgage Rates Rise; Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week; average mortgage rates surpassed three percent for the first time in 10 weeks. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose nine basis points to 3.02 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 10 basis points to 2.34 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.53 percent and were one basis point higher. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell to 411,000 claims filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 418,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell with 3.39 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 3.53 million continuing claims filed. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, and reports on pending home sales, construction spending, and consumer confidence. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 21, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 21, 2021Last week’s economic news included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets and  Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Home Builder Sentiment Slips Amid High Materials Prices, Labor Shortages

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index fell two points to a May index reading of 81. Readings above 50 indicate that most home builders are confident in market conditions, but builder sentiment has fallen from its peak reading of 90 before the pandemic. The NAHB Housing Market reached its lowest reading of 37 during the pandemic. Readings above 50 indicate that most builders surveyed were confident about housing market conditions.

Homebuilder confidence slipped due to higher home prices caused by high demand for homes. Builders have pulled back the pace of building homes due to rising lumber prices and potential buyers facing affordability concerns. While lumber prices remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels, they were 42 percent lower year-over-year.

Chuck Fowke, chairman of the NAHB, said, “These higher prices have priced new homes beyond the budget of prospective buyers,  which has slowed the strong pace of home building.” Low mortgage rates prompt buyers to enter the market, but home prices in many areas require mortgage loans that many buyers cannot afford.

Homebuilders continued to face shortages of skilled carpenters and other workers. These shortages also impact the price of homes and building pace. Shortages of new and pre-owned homes created high levels of buyer competition with multiple offers on available homes. In addition, some metro areas are seeing more cash offers, which make buying homes more difficult for buyers who depend on mortgages to purchase homes.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported 1.57 million housing starts in May on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. 1.52 million starts were reported in April and 1.63 million starts were expected in May. Building permits issued in May fell to 1.63 million permits issued on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. 1.73 million building permits were issued in April and analysts expected the same number of permits to be issued in May.

Mortgage Rates Fall; Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week with rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaging 2.93 percent and three basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were one basis point higher on average at 2.24 percent; rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were three basis points lower on average at 2.52 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Jobless claims were mixed last week as new jobless claims rose to 412,000 first-time claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 375,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were unchanged at 3.52 million claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 14, 2021

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Last week’s economic reporting included readings on job openings, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Job Openings Increase as Employers Struggle to Fill Positions

Job openings rose in April according to the Labor Department, but workers were quitting jobs in record numbers. 9.30 million openings were reported as compared to expectations of 8.20 million job openings and 8.30 million job openings reported in March. Increasing job openings indicate a stronger post-pandemic economy as businesses and service providers return to full capacity. 

Employers faced multiple obstacles to filling job openings including early retirements taken during the pandemic, difficulty in finding childcare options, and continued fear of covid-19. Generous covid-19 benefits and jobless benefits delayed workers’ return to their jobs. Job openings in restaurants and hotels rose by 349,000 openings in April. About one-third of all job openings were unfilled in April. 

In other news, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks inflation, rose by 0.60 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of 0.80 percent growth. Analysts expected a reading of 0.50 percent for May. May’s reading was the fourth consecutive monthly increase in inflation since the pandemic. Higher used-car prices accounted for approximately a third of May’s inflation growth. 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 14, 2021The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.70 percent in May and was 3.80 percent higher year-over-year for a 29-year high.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell three basis points to 2.96 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.23 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.55 percent and were nine basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. 

Initial jobless claims fell last week with 376,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 370,000 new claims and the previous week’s reading of 385,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell with 3.50 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 3.76 million continuing claims filed.

The University of Michigan released initial results for its June Consumer Sentiment Index. June’s index reading was 86.4 as compared to the expected reading of 84.4 and May’s index reading of 82.9. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index along with Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will release its usual post-meeting statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.